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您使用浏览器不支持直接复制的功能，建议您使用Ctrl+C或右键全选进行地址复制如今这么多人沉迷于网络游戏，有人诟病于此。 本文却从另外一个角度为游戏辩护， 游戏真的能让世界变得更加美好吗？
游戏让世界更加美好
原文作者：TED TALK
发布： 23:05:50
I'm Jane McGonigal. I'm a game designer. I've been making games online now for 10 years. And my goal for the next decade is to try to make it as easy to save the world in real life as it is to save the world in online games. Now, I have a plan for this, and it entails convincing more people, including all of you, to spend more time playing bigger and better games.
我是简·麦戈尼格尔& 一名游戏设计师。我从事网络游戏开发至今已有10年。我未来10年的目标，就是希望能像网络世界里一样简单地拯救现实世界。现在我便有这样的一个计划需要说服更多的人们，包括在座的你们愿意花上更多的时间去玩更大型更棒的游戏。 如今人们每周大约花30亿小时来玩网络游戏。在座的你们也许会寻思，"人们居然有花这么多时间在游戏上"。也许花的太多了，尤其是考虑到现实世界还有那么多亟待解决的问题。不过事实上根据我在未来研讨所的研究得到的结果确是大相径庭。每周30亿的游戏时间还远不足以来解决现实世界中的难题。事实上我认为如果我们还想要在这个星球上继续生存下去，我们务必要显著地增加游戏时间。我的粗略计算是每周我们至少要花210亿小时去玩游戏。你们可能会感觉那是违背常理的想法，所以我再次重申好让你们接受这个想法。如果我们想要解决饥饿、贫穷、气候变化、全球冲突、肥胖等诸如此类的问题。我认为我们需要在未来10年内积极达到至少每周21小时的游戏时间。不要觉得好笑，我可是认真的。 我来解释下原因& 这张图片大致总结出了为何我觉得游戏对人类未来生存有着举足轻重的原因。这是摄影师菲尔·托莱达诺拍摄的一张面部表情。他想要捕捉玩游戏时的表情，他便在玩家游戏时前方安放了一个摄像头，而且这是一张经典的玩家表情。现在你看到这个，如果你不是一个玩家你可能会忽略这张照片的微妙之处。你可能看到的是紧迫的感觉，还有一点恐惧，不过可以肯定他注意力高度集中正全神贯注地解决一个棘手的难题。如果你是一个玩家& 你便会观察到其他一些微妙之处。眼角和嘴角的上扬是积极情感的表现。眉毛的上扬则是惊讶。这便是一位即将完成一种叫做史诗级成就的玩家。你们都听说过这个说法，不错。看来我们在座的就有不少玩家。 史诗级成就是一种能让玩家极振奋的结果，在你成功之前你甚至都没想过会成功，它甚至几乎超越了你的想象。当你获得如此成就，你便会震惊因你的所作所为而震惊，这就是史诗成就。这位玩家便即将达成史诗级成就。而这则是新世纪当我们处理全球众多问题排忧解难时将会无数次见到的表情。这就是不畏艰险极力去达成史诗成就的表情。 现在不幸的是，我们在日常生活中，处理紧急事件时，往往看到的就是这个表情。我把这个表情叫做"我是生活弱者"。事实上是我自己做的这个，你们看出来吗？这就是我做的那个"我是生活弱者"的表情。这也是我在加州伯克利修读博士学位时一个老社区留下的涂鸦而我的课题就是为何我们在虚拟游戏里比现实要出色。这也是众多玩家们共有的一个问题我们觉得现实中的我们不如游戏世界中出色，当然我不仅仅只是说要取得成功。纵然那也是一部分。 我们确实在游戏世界中更有成就，不过我...不过我同时也是在说一种做要紧事的内在动力激起合作和协作的灵感。当我们处于游戏世界时，我相信我们大家都做到了最好的自己。变得时刻乐于助人，并且锲而不舍地去钻研一个问题，面对挫折越挫越勇。而现实中当我们面对失败，当我们遇到困难，我们确是另外一番感受。我们感到有所征服，我们感到无力抗拒。我们感到焦虑& 甚至压抑沮丧或者愤世嫉俗。我们玩游戏时却从未有此感受，它们在游戏中不复存在，这就是我在研究生期间所研究的一个课题。 究竟是什么让游戏使我们感觉没有什么是不可能的。我们如何才能把游戏中获得的这种感受移植到现实世界中，所以我研究了一些像魔兽世界这样的游戏，它们正是解决协作问题的理想平台。随后我还发现一些细节使得游戏世界中达成史诗成就变为可能。 首先就是无论何时当你出现在网络游戏里时，特别是在魔兽世界中。游戏里有各种各样的角色对你非常信任，时刻准备授予你拯救世界的任务。但并非所有的任务都如此& 而是那些完全匹配你当前等级的任务，都是你力所能及的。他们绝不会给你一个不可能完成的任务，不过有些恰好处于你能力最大限度，你要尽力去做。而且魔兽世界里人人都有自己的职位，那里不会有"打酱油"的人。那里时刻都有非常特别而重要的事等着你，而且游戏里时刻都有合作，无论你要去哪& 成百上千的玩家时刻准备陪同你去达成史诗成就。在现实生活中我们就不会轻易感到这种弹指间就有成千上百万战友陪同的感觉。
同时游戏中美妙的史诗故事正是我们所作所为动力的源泉，此外我们还会得到积极的反馈信息。你们肯定听说过升级后附加一点力量，还加一点智力，我们在现实中就不会得到这样持续的反馈。例如我走下这个舞台后就不会演讲能力加一，疯狂创意加一，更不要说创意能力加20了。我们不会从现实生活中得到这些，现在像魔兽世界这样互动在线游戏的问题就是，正因为其令人有着时刻品尝史诗成就滋味的惬意之感让玩家们都沉迷其中难以自拔，就是让人感觉虚幻比现实美妙。 截至目前所有魔兽世界的玩家总共已经在艾泽拉斯的虚拟世界中奋战了593万年之久。现在来看它也不尽然只是坏事，尽管听起来不是那么好，不过如果加入一些语境。593万年以前，我们灵长类的人类祖先开始直立行走，那是最开始直立行走的灵长类。当我们讨论我们花了多长时间进行游戏的时候，唯一合理的理解方式就是去想一想人类进化史的时间。这将是多么地令人震撼，这种想法是恰当的，因为你会发现花了那么多时间去玩游戏，我们确实能够改变我们为人的能力。我们将会演变为更加具合作精神和强劲的物种。我坚信这会成为事实。 来看看这个有趣的统计，最近才由卡耐基梅隆大学的研究人员公布的统计。在一个游戏氛围浓郁的国度当今的年轻人在21岁以前人均花费在网游的时间可达1万小时。1万小时确实是个有趣的数字。原因有二。首先对于美国的孩子来说1万零80个小时恰好是你从五年级到高中毕业所花的时间，前提是你出勤率良好。于是我们做了一个平行整个教育阶段的跟踪调查显示所有年轻人成为一个优秀玩家所花的时间跟他们学完学校里所有知识的时间是一样的。 你们之中有人可能有人读过马尔肯·格拉德威尔的新书《局外人》，所以你们应该听过他的成功理论。1万小时的成功理论，它基于认知科学的研究，就是如果我们在21岁前能花费1万个小时专心学习或任何事，我们将会成为个中翘楚。我们就能像世界上任何一个领域的行家一样出类拔萃。现在我们所关注的是擅长游戏的整整一代年轻人，所以首要问题是这些玩家们究竟擅长什么？因为一旦我们弄清楚这个，我们将会手握史无前例的人力资源。 这就是如今我们所知世界上每天至少花一个小时游戏的人数。他们便是我们的游戏达人，擅长于某种事物的5亿人。尔后在未来10年我们将会又有数十亿擅长某种事物的人才。如果你还不知道，我们正在探索。游戏产业的发展令人欣慰，如今它的低能耗以及智能手机的无线网络替代传统宽带得以让全世界的玩家特别是像印度、中国、巴西这些国度能连线在一起。有人预测未来十年玩家将会增长10亿，总游戏人数将会达到15亿。所以我早已开始了探索游戏究竟能让我们擅长什么。以下是我目前所想到的四点。
首先是急切乐观精神。把它想象成一种极端的自我动力，急切乐观便是有立即行动解决问题的迫切渴望同时结合着相信自我必胜的信念。玩家们始终坚信达到史诗级成就是可能的，而且其间不断的尝试都是值得的， 玩家们并不是无所事事的，玩家们擅长组建牢固的社交纽带 有个有趣的调查显示。我们同他人游戏后会更加喜欢他们，即便他们惨虐我们。究其原因便是同他人游戏需要积累一定的信任。我们坚信他们愿意花他们的时间来陪我们，他们同样也抱有同样的心态，为了同一个目标奋斗直到游戏结束。由此可见，一起玩游戏着实可以建立交情，信任还有协作。进而我们能够建立一个更坚固的社会关系。 幸福的生产力，我喜欢这个。你们知道魔兽世界玩家们像兼职一样平均每周游戏22小时的原因嘛。那是因为当我们玩游戏的时候，相较于休闲、出去游玩加倍玩游戏让我们更开心。我们知道作为人类都希望能不断优化去做艰巨而有意义的事物。而玩家们一旦有了合适的工作 便会一直努力地工作下去。 最后一点& 史诗的意义 玩家们喜欢能够徜徉在那些关乎人类星际故事的庄严任务里。能够做点细微琐事都能为美好愿景有所贡献。你们都知道维基百科，全球最大的网络百科。排在第二的则是拥有接近8万条词条的魔兽世界百科。每月有500万人使用它，其中搜集有关《魔兽世界》的信息比互联网上其他任何主题的信息都要多。他们便是在叙写史诗故事他们在创建有关魔兽世界宏大的知识资源宝库。
这就是把四种超能力加到一件事上的例子，玩家们便是这种具有超能力和希望的群体。他们认为他们有独立改变这个世界的能力。唯一的问题就是他们相信他们只有改变虚拟世界的能力，而不是现实世界。这就是我正尝试解决的难题。有一位叫做爱德华·卡斯特诺瓦的经济学家，他的贡献非常卓越。他研究为什么人们愿意投入大量的时间和精力还有金钱到网络世界里。他说过"我们正见证着数不尽数的人沉溺于虚拟的网络世界"。由于他是经济学家，所以他还是比较理性的。他还说...我可不同& 我是游戏设计师。但是他有说，这句话十分有道理 ，因为玩家们在虚拟世界中成就比现实要高。他们在游戏中拥有比现实更坚实的社会关系 ，他们可以获得比现实世界更好的回报和成就感，所以他说对玩家们来说花费更多的时间在虚拟世界是合情合理的。 目前我也觉得这很理性，不过无论如何这都不是最优解。我们务必要让现实世界像游戏一般才行，于是我从2500年前的故事中得到启发。这些是远古时候的骰子由羊骨做成。在超赞的游戏控制器前，我们只有羊骨头，这些就是人类最早设计的游戏设备的代表。而且如果你熟悉古希腊历史学家希罗多德的作品，你也许知晓这段历史，也就是谁以及为何要发明游戏的历史。希罗多德曾说游戏特别是骰子游戏是由吕底亚古国在闹饥荒期间发明的。显然历史上曾有过那么几次饥荒，所以吕底亚国王不得不做一些疯狂的决定。当时人们在挨饿，人们彼此争抢，那是个非常极端的景象。他们需要一种极端的解决方案，根据希罗多德的记载，他们发明了骰子游戏，然后制定了一个国策。第一天每个人都能吃饭，而第二天每个人则要去玩游戏。而且他们沉迷骰子游戏之中，因为游戏极具吸引力让我们能沉浸在自我满足的幸福生产力中，他们从而忘记了他们无食可吃的事实。尔后的又一天他们继续玩游戏，然后再一天他们便吃饭。根据希罗多德的记载他们这样度过了18年，用一日进食一日游戏的方法度过了大饥荒。 而这恰恰正是我认为当今应该如何运用游戏的方式，我们通过游戏来逃避现实世界的折磨 我们通过游戏来逃离现实中破碎的一切，现实生活中不尽人意的一切，同时我们也从游戏中得到我们所需的。 故事还没有结束，接下来才是高潮。希罗多德记载18年后饥荒并没有得以改善，所以国王决定进行最后一次骰子游戏。他们把整个王国分为两队来进行一个骰子游戏，游戏的获胜方将会踏上一次史诗的征途。他们将会离开吕底亚然后再去寻找新的生存之地。留下的人口刚好 依赖剩下的资源存活，希冀将文明传承到能得以繁荣的地方。这些听起来有不可思议，不过最近DNA证据显示罗马人的祖先伊楚利亚人和古吕底亚人有着相同的DNA。更有甚者最近科学家表示希罗多德疯狂的故事是确有其事，而且地质学家找到了证据表明地球上曾经有持续20年的降温，从而得以解释大饥荒的可能发生，因此这个荒唐的故事可能是真的。他们可能通过玩游戏而拯救了他们的文明，在游戏中躲避现实长达18年之久，因此得以启发，知道了如何通过游戏把人们聚在一起。也正是通过这种方式才拯救了整个文明。 我们也能做到。人们从1994年就开始玩魔兽争霸。它是魔兽世界系列的第一款即时战略游戏，至今问世已有16年。他们玩了18年骰子游戏，我们则玩了16年的魔兽争霸。我断言我们已经准备好面对我们的史诗游戏了。他们有一半的文明远走去寻找新世界，现在我们则有每周210亿小时的游戏时间，让我们其中一半人每天游戏一个小时，直至我们可以去解决现实生活中的问题。现在我想你会问“我们怎么用游戏来解决实际问题？”那正是我过去几年 呕心沥血在未来研究所工作的原因。
这是我们在帕洛阿尔托办公室的横幅，它表达了我们该如何尝试与未来接触的观点，我们不想尝试去预见未来，我们要做的是创造未来。我们希望能勾画出最美好的图景从而能够激励人们来实现那美好的蓝图。我们想要描绘史诗般的成就，得以赋予人们实现史诗成就的途径。现在我来简单展示一下我设计的试图让人们有方法在未来能实现史诗成就的三个游戏。 这个是《无油的世界》，我们在07年制作了这个游戏。这是一款要求在缺油条件下试图生存的在线游戏，石油短缺尽管是虚构的，不过我们设计了足够的信息让你相信那是事实& 并且让你在现实生活中生存时好似石油已经耗尽。当你注册时你要告诉我们住在哪里，然后我们会提供你实时新闻视频资源来告诉你当前石油的成本是多少，什么资源是不能得到的，食品供给如何受到影响，如果学校闭校、暴动发生交通受到哪些影响。你必须假设这些都是事实来规划你的现实生活，随后我们要求你用博客记载这些，可以发布视频和照片。我们在07年邀请了1700名玩家进行测试，从那会开始我们就开始了3年的跟踪调查，我敢告诉你们这是一次有改革性的实验，没有人单单因为为了世界的好或者因为我们应该怎样而去改变他们的生活。不过如果你让他们沉浸在一个不寻常的经历当中，并且告诉他们石油已耗尽，这将是一个美妙的故事和异乎寻常的经历。挑战自我，看看你该如何生存。绝大多数玩家事后都保留了他们从游戏中养成的习惯。 下面一个拯救世界的游戏。我们希望创建一个比石油危机更难的问题。我们在未来研究所发明了一个叫做《Superstruct》的游戏。游戏的背景是一台超级电脑计算出人类只能在地球上生存23年。这个电脑叫做全球灭绝警觉系统。人们在这个游戏中就像杰里·布鲁克海默的电影里一样，大家知道杰里·布鲁克海默电影都有组织一个梦之队。有宇航员、科学家以及前犯 。他们都有一些拯救世界的本领，不过我们的游戏里没有采用五人组建梦之队的模式。而是人人都是梦之队成员，你们的职责就是发明未来的能源、未来的食物、未来的医疗保健、未来的安保体制以及未来的社会安全网络。八周的时间里有八千人玩过这个游戏，他们想出了500条极具创造力的解决方案，如果你去搜索Superstruct就可以看到。 最后一款游戏。我们将会在3月3号发布它，这是和世界银行学院合作完成的。如果你能通关这款游戏将会获得世界银行组织认证的社会创新者2010级的证书。通过和撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区大学的合作，我们正邀请他们参加社会创新能力的学习。游戏更像一本图解小说，有各个技能的均衡，比如洞察力、知识网络、可持续性、远见和足智多谋。我希望你们所有人能够把这个游戏分享给世界各地的年轻人，特别是那些发展中地区的年轻人。他们或许能从中收益，开始构建他们的社会企业去拯救世界。 我差不多快要结束了，我想问一个问题，你认为将来会发生什么？我们拥有这么多优秀的玩家，我们所玩的游戏可能就会是未来要做事情的试验，不过现在还无一玩家拯救过现实世界 。我希望你们能够赞同我的观点，就是玩家是我们能完成现实世界工作的人力资源，而游戏则是强大的改革平台。我们拥有这些强大的超能力，幸福的生产力，建立坚实社会结构的能力，急切的乐观感以及对史诗意义的渴望。我真心希望我们能一起来玩那样的游戏从而能在下一个世纪依旧生存在这个星球上，我希望大家能加入我们制作或者游玩这样的游戏，当我展望未来10年的时候，两件事我已经心中有数，那就是我们可以创造任何我们所能想象的未来以及我们可以玩任何我们想玩的游戏。所以我想说让改变世界的游戏猛烈的来吧。 谢谢你们 Right now we spend three billion hours a week playing online games. Some of you might be thinking, "That's a lot of time to spend playing games." Maybe too much time, considering how many urgent problems we have to solve in the real world. But actually, according to my research, at The Institute For The Future, it's actually the opposite is true. Three billion hours a week is not nearly enough game play to solve the world's most urgent problems.
In fact, I believe that if we want to survive the next century on this planet, we need to increase that total dramatically. I've calculated the total we need at 21 billion hours of game play every week. So, that's probably a bit of a counterintuitive idea, so, I'll say it again, let it sink in. If we want to solve problems like hunger, poverty, climate change, global conflict, obesity, I believe that we need to aspire to play games online for at least 21 billion hours a week, by the end of the next decade. (Laughter) No. I'm serious. I am.
Here's why. This picture pretty much sums up why I think games are so essential to the future survival of the human species. (Laughter) Truly. This is a portrait by a photographer named Phil Toledano. He wanted to capture the emotion of gaming. So, he set up a camera in front of gamers while they were playing. And this is a classic gaming emotion. Now, if you're not a gamer you might miss some of the nuance in this photo. You probably see the sense of urgency, a little bit of fear, but intense concentration, deep deep focus on tackling a really difficult problem.
If you are a gamer, you will notice a few nuances here, the crinkle of the eyes up, and around the mouth is a sign of optimism. And the eyebrows up is surprise. This is a gamer who is on the verge of something called an epic win. (Laughter) Oh, you've heard of that. Okay. Good. So we have some gamers among us. An epic win is an outcome that is so extraordinarily positive you had no idea it was even possible until you achieved it. It was almost beyond the threshold of imagination. And when you get there you are shocked to discover what you are truly capable of. That is an epic win. This is a gamer on the verge of an epic win. And this is the face that we need to see on millions of problem-solvers all over the world as we try to tackle the obstacles of the next century. The face of someone who, against all odds is on the verge of an epic win.
& Now, unfortunately this is more of the face that we see in everyday life now as we try to tackle urgent problems. This is what I call the "I'm Not Good At Life" face. And this is actually me making it. Can you see? Yes. Good. This is actually me making the "I'm Not Good At Life" face. This is a piece of graffiti in my old neighborhood in Berkeley, California, where I did my PhD on why we're better in games than we are in real life. And this is a problem that a lot of gamers have. We feel that we are not as good in reality as we are in games.
And I don't mean just good as in successful, although that's part of it. We do achieve more in game worlds. But I also but I also mean good as in motivated to do something that matters, inspired to collaborate and to cooperate. And when we're in game worlds I believe that many of us become the best version of ourselves, the most likely to help at a moment's notice, the most likely to stick with a problem as long at it takes, to get up after failure and try again. And in real life, when we face failure, when we confront obstacles, we often don't feel that way. We feel overcome. We feel overwhelmed. We feel anxious, maybe depressed, frustrated or cynical. We never have those feelings when we're playing games, they just don't exist in games. So, that's what I wanted to study when I was a graduate student.
What about games makes it impossible to feel that we can't achieve everything? How can we take those feelings from games and apply them to real-world work? So, I looked at games like World of Warcraft, which is really the ideal collaborative problem solving environment. And I started to notice a few things that make epic wins so possible in online worlds.
So, the first thing is, whenever you show up in one of these online games especially in World of Warcraft, there are lots and lots of different characters who are willing to trust you with a world-saving mission, right away. But not just any mission, it's a mission that is perfectly matched with your current level in the game. Right? So, you can do it. They never give you a challenge that you can't achieve. But it is on the verge of what you're capable of. So, you have to try hard. But there is no unemployment in World of Warcraft. There is no sitting around wringing your hands. There is always something specific and important to be done. And there are also tons of collaborators. Everywhere you go, hundreds of thousands of people ready to work with you to achieve your epic mission.
It's not something that we have in real life that easily, this sense that at our fingertips are tons of collaborators. And also there is this epic story, this inspiring story of why we're there, and what we're doing. And then we get all this positive feedback. You guys have heard of leveling up and plus-one strength, and plus-one intelligence. We don't get that kind of constant feedback in real life. When I get off this stage I'm not going to have plus-one speaking, and plus-one crazy idea, plus-20 crazy idea. I don't get that feedback in real life.
& Now, the problem with collaborative online environments like World of Warcraft is that it's so satisfying to be on the verge of an epic win all the time, that we decide to spend all our time in these game worlds. It's just better than reality. So, so far, collectively all the World of Warcraft gamers have spent 5.93 million years solving the virtual problems of Azeroth. Now, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It might sound like it's a bad thing. But to put that in context: 5.93 million years ago was when our earliest primate human ancestors stood up. That was the first upright primate.
Okay, so when we talk about how much time we're currently investing in playing games, the only way it makes sense to even think about it, is to talk about time at the magnitude of human evolution, which is an extraordinary thing. But it's also apt. Because it turns out that by spending all this time playing games, we are actually changing what we are capable of as human beings. We are evolving to be a more collaborative and hearty species. This is true. I believe this.
So, consider this really interesting statistic. It was recently published by a researcher at Carnegie Mellon University. The average young person today in a country with a strong gamer culture will have spent 10,000 hours playing online games, by the age of 21. Now 10,000 hours is a really interesting number for two reasons. First of all, for children in the United States 10,080 hours is the exact amount of time you will spend in school from fifth grade to high school graduation if you have perfect attendance.
So, we have an entire parallel track of education going on where young people are learning as much about what it takes to be a good gamer as they are learning about everything else in school. And some of you have probably read Malcom Gladwell's new book Outliers. So, you would have heard of his theory of success, the 10,000 hour theory of success. It's based on this great cognitive science research that if we can master 10,000 hours at effortful study, at anything by the age of 21, we will be virtuosos at it. We will be as good at whatever we do as the greatest people in the world. And so, now what we're looking at is an entire generation of young people who are virtuoso gamers.
So, the big question is, "What exactly are gamers getting so good at?" Because if we could figure that out we would have a virtually unprecedented human resource on our hands. This is how many people we now have in the world who spend at least an hour a day playing online games. These are our virtuoso gamers. 500 million people who are extraordinarily good at something. And in the next decade we're going to have another billion gamers who are extraordinarily good at whatever that is. If you don't know it already, this is coming. The game industry is developing consoles that are low energy and that work with the wireless phone networks instead of broadband Internet so that gamers all over the world, particularly in India, China, Brazil, can get online. They expect one billion more gamers in the next decade. It will bring us up to 1.5 billion gamers.
So, I've started to think about what these games are making us virtuosos at. Here are the four things I came up with. The first is urgent optimism. Okay. Think of this as extreme self-motivation. Urgent optimism is the desire to act immediately to tackle an obstacle, combined with the belief that we have a reasonable hope of success. Gamers always believe that an epic win is possible, and that it is always worth trying, and trying now. Gamers don't sit around. Gamers are virtuosos at weaving a tight social fabric. There is a lot of interesting research that shows that we like people better after we play a game with them, even if they've beaten us badly. And the reason is, it takes a lot of trust to play a game with someone. We trust that they will spend their time with us, that they will play by the same rules, value the same goal, they'll stay with the game until it's over.
And so, playing a game together actually builds up bonds and trust and cooperation. And we actually build stronger social relationships as a result. Blissful productivity. I love it. You know there is a reason why the average World of Warcraft gamer plays for 22 hours a week, kind of a half-time job. It's because we know, when we're playing a game, that we're actually happier working hard, than we are relaxing, or hanging out. We know that we are optimized, as human beings, to do hard meaningful work. And gamers are willing to work hard all the time, if they're given the right work.
Finally, epic meaning. Gamers love to be attached to awe-inspiring missions to human planetary-scale stories. So, just one bit of trivia that helps put that into perspective. So, you all know Wikipedia, biggest wiki in the world. Second biggest wiki, in the world, with nearly 80,000 articles is the World of Warcraft wiki. Five million people use it every month. They have compiled more information about World of Warcraft on the Internet than any other topic covered on any other wiki in the world. They are building an epic story. They are building an epic knowledge resource about the World of Warcraft.
Okay, so these are four superpowers that add up to one thing. Gamers are super-empowered hopeful individuals. These are people who believe that they are individually capable of changing the world. And the only problem is that they believe that they are capable of changing virtual worlds and not the real world. That's the problem that I'm trying to solve.
There is an economist named Edward Castronova. His work is brilliant. He looks at why people are investing so much time and energy and money, in online worlds. And he says, "We're witnessing what amounts to no less than a mass exodus to virtual worlds and online game environments." And he's an economist. So, he's rational. And he says ... (Laughter) Not like me -- I' I'm exuberant. But he says, that this makes perfect sense, because gamers can achieve more in online worlds than they can in real life. They can have stronger social relationships in games than they can have in real life. They get better feedback and feel more rewarded in games than they do in real life. So, he says for now it makes perfect sense for gamers to spend more time in virtual worlds than the real world. Now, I also agree that that is rational, for now. But it is not, by any means, an optimal situation. We have to start making the real world more like a game.
So, I take my inspiration from something that happened 2,500 years ago. These are ancient dice, made out of sheep's knuckles. Right? Before we had awesome game controlers we had sheep's knuckles. And these represent the first game equipment designed by human beings. And if you're familiar with the work of the ancient Greek historian, Herodotus, you might know this history. Which is the history of who invented games and why. Herodotus says that games, particularly dice games were invented in the kingdom of Lydia during a time of famine.
Apparently, there was such a severe famine, that the king of Lydia decided that they had to do something crazy. People were suffering. People were fighting. It was an extreme situation. They needed an extreme solution. So, according to Herodotus, they invented dice games and they set up a kingdom-wide policy. On one day, everybody would eat. And on the next day, everybody would play games. And they would be so immersed in playing the dice games because games are so engaging, and immerse us in such satisfying blissful productivity, they would ignore the fact that they had no food to eat. And then on the next day, they would play games. And on the next day they would eat.
And according to Herodotus, they passed 18 years this way, surviving through a famine, by eating on one day, and playing games on the next. Now, this is exactly, I think, how we're using games today. We're using games to escape real-world suffering. We're using games to get away from everything that's broken in the real environment, everything that's not satisfying about real life, and we're getting what we need from games.
& But it doesn't have to end there. This is really exciting. According to Herodotus, after 18 years the famine wasn't getting better, So, the king decided they would play one final dice game. They divided the entire kingdom in half. They played one dice game, and the winners of that game got to go on an epic adventure. They would leave Lydia, And they would go out in search of a new place to live, leaving behind just enough people to survive on the resources that were available, and hopefully to take the civilization somewhere else where they could thrive.
Now, this sounds crazy, right? But recently, DNA evidence has shown that the Etruscans, who lead to the Roman empire, actually share the same DNA as the ancient Lydians. And so, recently, scientists have suggested that Herodotus's crazy story is actually true. And geologists have found evidence of a global cooling that lasted for nearly 20 years that could have explained the famine. So, this crazy story might be true. They might have actually saved their culture by playing games, escaping to games for 18 years and then been so inspired, and knew so much about how to come together with games, that they actually saved the entire civilization that way.
Okay, we can do that. We've been playing Warcraft since 1994. That was the first real-time strategy game from the World of Warcraft series. That was 16 years ago. They played dice games for 18 years, we've been playing Warcraft for 16 years. I say we are ready for our own epic game. Now, they had half the civilization go off in search of a new world. So, that's where I get my 21 billion hours a week of game-play from. Let's get half of us to agree to spend an hour a day playing games, until we solve real-world problems.
Now, I know you're asking, "How are we going to solve real world problems in games?" Well, that's what I have devoted my work to over the past few years, at The Institute For The Future. We have this banner in our offices in Palo Alto, and it expresses our view of how we should try to relate to the future. We do not want to try to predict the future. What we want to do is make the future. We want to imagine the best case scenario outcome And then we want to empower people to make that outcome a reality. We want to imaging epic wins, and then give people the means to achieve the epic win.
I'm just going to very briefly show you three games that I've made that are an attempt to give people the means to create epic wins in their own futures. So, this is World Without Oil. We made this game in 2007. This is an online game in which you try to survive an oil shortage. The oil shortage is fictional, but we put enough online content out there for you to believe that it's real, and to live your real life as if we've run out of oil. So, when you come to the game you sign up, you tell us where you live. And then we give you real-time news videos data feeds that show you exactly how much oil costs, what's not available, how food supply is being affected, how transportation is being affected, if schools are closed, if their is rioting. And you have to figure out how you would live your real life as if this were true. And then we ask you to blog about it, to post videos, to post photos.
We piloted this game with 1,700 players in 2007. And we've tracked them for the three years since. And I can tell you that this is a transformative experience. Nobody wants to change how they live just because it's good for the world, or because we are supposed to. But if you immerse them in an epic adventure and tell them, "We've run out of oil." This is an amazing story and adventure for you to go on. Challenge yourself to see how you would survive. Most of our players have kept up the habits that they learned in this game.
& So, for the next world-saving game, we decided to aim higher, bigger problem than just peak oil. We did a game called Superstruct at The Institute For The Future. And the premise was, a supercomputer has calculated that humans have only 23 years left on the planet. This supercomputer was called the Global Extinction Awareness System, of course. We asked people to come online almost like a Jerry Bruckheimer movie. You know Jerry Bruckheimer movies, you form a dream team. You've got the astronaut, the scientist, the ex-convict, and they all have something to do to save the world. (Laughter)
But in our game, instead of just having five people on the dream team, we said everybody is on the dream team, and it's your job to invent the future of energy, the future of food, the future of health, the future of security and the future of the social safety net. We had 8,000 people play that game for eight weeks. They came up with 500 insanely creative solutions that you can go online, if you Google "Superstruct", and see.
So, finally, the last game, We're launching it March 3rd. This is a game done with the World Bank Institute. If you complete the game you will be certified by the World Bank Institute, as a Social Innovator, class of 2010. Working with universities all over sub-Saharan Africa, And we are inviting them to learn social innovation skills. We've got a graphic novel. We've got leveling up in skills like local insight, knowledge networking, sustainability, vision, and resourcefulness. I would like to invite all of you to please share this game with young people, anywhere in the world, particularly in developing areas, who might benefit from coming together to try to start to imagine their own social enterprises to save the world.
& So, I'm going to wrap up now. I want to ask a question. What do you think happens next? We've got all these amazing gamers, we've got these games that are kind of pilots of what we might do, but none of them have saved the real world yet. Well I hope that you will agree with me that gamers are a human resource that we can use to do real-world work, that games are a powerful platform for change. We have all these amazing superpowers, blissful productivity, the ability to weave a tight social fabric, this feeling of urgent optimism, and the desire for epic meaning.
I really hope that we can come together to play games that matter, to survive on this planet for another century. And that's my hope that you will join me in making and playing games like this. When I look forward to the next decade, I know two things for sure, that we can make any future we can imagine, and we can play any games we want. So, I say let the world-changing games begin. Thank you. (Applause)
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发表于： 22:11:58
没有游戏，生活少了些乐趣
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