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The Seahawks receiver put himself on the map with a numerical explosion in the second half of last year, but Cian Fahey shows that Baldwin has been very good for a long time now.
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Week 6 DVOA Ratings
by Aaron Schatz
The Denver Broncos remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week, despite their sort of-close call against the New York Jets on Sunday. Right below Denver is a surprising No. 2, Baltimore. And to some people, the team at No. 3 is even more surprising, because it is still Seattle despite the loss to the Cowboys. Yet Dallas, the team now being lauded as the best in the NFC by most NFL observers, is still only tenth in our DVOA ratings.What gives?
The issue is certainly not this Sunday's win. The DVOA system loved this weekend's performance, giving Dallas a single-game DVOA of 57.2%. The final score closer than the performances of the two teams because the Cowboys had special teams gaffes and didn't recover any of the game's three fumbles. The Cowboys also have nice, high ratings for their Week 2 win over Tennessee and their Week 4 victory over New Orleans. However, their very close Week 3 and Week 5 wins (over St. Louis and Houston) are around 0.0%. Put that together with their very bad Week 1 loss to the 49ers, and the Cowboys just don't come out looking like dominant team overall no matter how good they were in Seattle this week.
Another way that the Seattle win stands out: schedule strength. Based on DVOA, this is the only tough opponent the Cowboys have faced all season. We all may still think of the Saints as the team that should win the NFC South if they can just get the defense back to average... but that's not the team they've really been so far this year. They rank No. 25 in DVOA, with other Dallas opponents ranking No. 24 (Houston), No. 26 (Tennessee), and No. 27 (St. Louis). San Francisco right now is only No. 15.
That phenomenally improved Dallas defense? It's phenomenally improved, all right, but not to the level of &good.& The Cowboys' single-game defensive DVOA of -50.3% against the Seahawks is one of the best games
-- but the Cowboys defense hasn't come close to that in any other game. The Cowboys currently have a defensive DVOA of 0.1%, pretty much right at league average. . The running game has been fabulous, but the passing game has been good, not great -- No. 11 in offensive DVOA -- and you all know that passing matters more than rushing in the modern NFL. Special teams have also been poor except for kicker Dan Bailey.
We still have Dallas as , of course. It's tough to blow a 5-1 record, although it is easier to screw up when one of your division rivals is also 5-1. Although the Eagles are slightly higher than the Cowboys in DAVE, the Cowboys have an easier remaining schedule, so we have the Cowboys making the playoffs in 78.3 percent of simulations and the Eagles in 72.4 percent of simulations.
While Dallas is lower than many people would expect, Baltimore is higher than many people would expect. The Ravens are one of just two teams currently in the top ten for all three phases of the game. (Seattle is the other.) Baltimore has had three huge, dominating wins. Their opening loss to Cincinnati was very close (23-16, -10.9% DVOA). And their Week 5 loss to Indianapolis is one of those games where both teams end up with very high DVOA ratings. In fact, Baltimore has a higher rating than Indianapolis for that game. The Colts had more yards per play (5.4 to 5.0) but also more turnovers (four, if you include a fumble they recovered themselves, to just two for Baltimore). The big problem for the Ravens was a horrific 1-for-9 record on third downs in that game, but no team is likely to be that bad on third downs in the long run, so the DVOA system says Baltimore's good play on defense and special teams in Week 5 outweighed its struggles on offense.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the Ravens from here. The Football Outsiders && theory says that those blowout wins over Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh really tell us something about how good this team is right now. On the other hand, as schedule strength gets more important in our ratings, the fact that the NFC South has been far weaker than expected this season will become a bigger and bigger deal. Right now, we have three NFC South teams at No. 22 or lower. The Falcons are still up at No. 12, but that's almost entirely because of their huge win over Tampa B they've fallen from No. 2 to No. 12 in three weeks. A new tool in our playoff odds simulations allows me to look at how often a division can't produce a champion with a winning record, and right now no NFC South team goes better than 8-8 (or for Carolina, 8-7-1) in 44 percent of simulations. The NFC South champion has a losing record in 11.8 percent of simulations.
There are a few other issues I would love to talk about in this week's commentary. Why doesn't anyone notice that Seattle has played the league's toughest schedule so far? Where is this Cleveland offensive explosion coming from? Just how much better is the Detroit defense than the rest of the league right now, and just how much worse have their kickers been? However, I want to get all of this week's tables online for reader enjoyment before I dash off to the airport to catch my flight home from beautiful St. Louis. So those topics will have to wait for next week's commentary, or perhaps for special posts later this week. The same goes for my promised play-by-play breakdown of Robert Quinn against Joe Staley.
Thanks again to Kevin Demoff and the Rams for bringing me in for last night's game. It always expands my knowledge to attend games in person, especially somewhere new. You see more on the field, at least when it comes to defensive secondary coverage. You learn from the other reporters. (Everyone should get to watch a game next to Mike Sando.) And I love seeing the fans and getting the feel for the football culture of a city by hanging around outside a new stadium before the game. Unfortunately, the football culture of St. Louis... Sorry, it needs a little work, guys. If the Rams do end up staying in town, you can start by painting the seats in the dome blue and gold, for crying out loud. Red seats only make sense for .
Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the
on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.
The Football Outsiders stars for Week 6 are:
CB , NE (24-HOUR HERO): Limited Bills No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to just 2 receptions for 27 yards.
DT , JAC: 3 run tackles for a combined minus-1 yard, plus a pass defensed.
RG , DAL: No sacks or pa his blocks were essential to the final three DeMarco Murray runs of the touchdown drive that gave Dallas the lead.
LT , PHI: Held Jason Pierre-Paul of the Giants to 1.5 pass pressures with no sacks or QB Philadelphia running backs had 67 yards on 11 carries to the left.
RB , ATL: Led all Week 6 running backs with 37 receiving DYAR (4 targets, 4 catches, 64 yards, and a touchdown).
Apologies to the Baltimore Ravens fans for not being able to fit in any members of their front seven, which dominated Tampa B we already did C.J. Mosley recently and the Madden Ultimate Team folks have some future plans for some of those other players.
Also, we know we've done a lot of right guards but no left guards yet. We're looking to do a left guard in the next week or two.
All stats pages are now updated with Week 6 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium,
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further .)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 60 they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.&
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE for teams with six games played, and 27 percent of DAVE for teams with five games played.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
&team& is clearly ranked &too high/too low& because &reason unrelated to DVOA&. &subjective ranking system& is way better than this. &unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling&
OFFENSEDVOA
DEFENSEDVOA
OFFENSEDVOA
DEFENSEDVOA
NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
uses a statistic known as &Forest Index& that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
NON-ADJTOT VOA
ESTIM.WINS
FUTURESCHED
NON-ADJTOT VOA
ESTIM.WINS
FUTURESCHED
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 14 Oct 2014
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Best Buys with Alan
Casino Player Clubs / Ratings
Here's where we'll give you some ideas to help you get the most value
when&you visit a casino.& One way to maximize your value is to be sure you are properly rated for your casino play
and bets.& This will help you get your casino comps as well as benefits for certain drawings, giveaways and promotions
that the casino might have in the future.
YEAR-END BONUS FOR GREAT GIFT WRAP-UP POINTS ANNOUNCEDUpdate August 23, 2016& Total Rewards, the players club program
for Caesars casinos, has announced a year-end bonus plan for the Great Gift Wrap-Up. The bonus will double the amount of points
earned during the year between January 1st and October 15th if you stay and play at any of the Caesars Total Rewards properties
between September 1 and October 15, 2016. If you stay and play you get a one time 2X multiplier on your Great Gift Wrap Up
Points earned through October 15, 2016. The announcement did not include anything about any minimum play, so it appears that
if you earn just one tier point you would qualify.
TOTAL REWARDS HAS A 24-HOUR DESK IN LAS VEGASUpdate August 8, 2016& If you ever need to get something from Caesars Total Rewards in the middle of
the night, there is one 24-hour Total Rewards desk in operation in Las Vegas. I found this out by accident recently when I
wanted to get on the High Roller observation wheel at about 11-PM, when nearly all of the Total Rewards desks are closed.
A host at the Linq told me that the Cromwell cashier's cage does double-duty as the Total Rewards desk, and since the cage
never closes, Total Rewards services are also available 24/7 there at the Cromwell.
CHECKING OUT THE DIAMOND LOUNGE AT CAESARS PALACEUpdate July 28, 2016& One of the perks of being a Diamond or Seven Stars player in the Caesars Total
Rewards program is the ability to use and eat and drink for free at the Diamond Lounges in the various Total Rewards casinos.I don't usually spend time in the Diamond Lounges at any of the Total Rewards casinos. The reason I don't usually
visit is there is usually not much to entice me to visit. Sometimes I will step into the Diamond Lounge at Caesars Palace
in Las Vegas because they have three computers there that guests can use to check email or search the web or post on Facebook.
There is an open bar for Diamond and Seven Stars players and their guests inside the lounge, but I don't drink booze so that's
not appealing to me either.And then there is the food. In the past when I stopped in to the Diamond
Lounge the food that was available was not interesting at all as it was mostly finger food. But on my last visit to Caesars
a few days ago, I stopped in to the Diamond Lounge and even though I arrived late -- after most of the hot food had been consumed
-- I did find the food service improved dramatically from the last time I was there a couple of years ago.Below is the plate I put together for myself from the buffet in the Diamond Lounge. I chose two egg rolls, some salads
(one is a bean salad), some vegetables and I had a soft drink that was served by a friendly waitress. My friend who was with
me had an ice tea along with a plate of salads. There were also desserts including individuals pies and cakes but I skipped
them so there isn't a picture. The food was actually tasty. The salads and veggies were fresh. The service by the waitresses
were fast, and if I wanted to stay and drink until closing at 9-PM I could have.
When the Diamond Lounge at Caesars first opened
several years ago there was always a generous buffet
for Diamond and
Seven Stars members of the Total Rewards program. But after a while the
food was downgraded and my host
at the time told me it was because the
restaurants at the property complained that too many players were eating
instead of visiting the restaurants.There is no time limit for using the Diamond Lounge and there
is no limit on how much you can drink either, but if you appear tipsy the bartenders and waitresses will cut you off. The
room is capacity controlled and during peak times you might find a line outside. When the line is long, a second line is set
up for Seven Stars players who get priority over Diamond players to enter. If there is a short line, Seven Stars and Diamond
players are in the same line. Seven Stars and Diamond players can bring a limited number of guests with them into the lounge.
The lounge usually is open for a few hours a day -- and it is not meant to be an all-day retreat.Caesars
Palace, at one time, had a luxurious lounge exclusively for its Seven
Stars players in the area that is now the Diamond
and Seven Stars
check-in lounge. That Seven Stars lounge was also removed because too
many Seven Stars players were eating
and drinking and not playing. The
Seven Stars lounge boasted a luxurious buffet and a chef who prepared
sandwiches and omelettes
to order and there were comfortable sofas and big screen TVs to watch stock market news or sporting events.
CAESARS TOTAL REWARDS SPRING BONUS TIER POINTS SHOWING
UP IN ACCOUNTSUpdate July 15, 2016& If you played at a Total
Rewards casinos between April 1 through June 30 and earned at least 1,000 Tier Credits, check your account for a special 50%
tier credit bonus from a special spring promotion.Caesars offered the bonus if you signed up
for the promotion and gave Caesars an up-to-date email address. Look for promotions like this in the future.I like to take advantage of bonus promotions, but don't make the mistake of playing more just for a bonus as a bonus
is rarely worth what you lose at playing. What made this particular promotion appealing is that the Spring Bonus was given
in addition to regular daily bonuses.
MGM M-LIFE PROGRAM ADDS A CREDIT CARD BENEFITUpdate June 9, 2016& The MGM casino player club program called MLife has added a credit card program
that will help casino players earn comps and tier points. It is similar to the credit card program that Caesars Total Rewards
has had for several years, but it is not exactly the same. The MLife Rewards Mastercard program is run by a bank and you will
have to qualify for the card through the bank.Every dollar spent at an MGM resort earns the cardholder
3X tier points and comp credits, and every dollar spent at gas stations and supermarkets earns 2X tier points and comp credits,
and cardholders get 1 tier point and comp point for other purchases. The card is a way to earn higher casino player status
without gambling.The most immediate value for the cardholder is free self-parking because the
cardholder immediately gets Pearl status in the MLife program. You need Gold status for free valet parking. There is no annual
fee and there are some other benefits such as buffet line passes.My feeling is there is nothing
wrong with these type of &affinity credit cards& as long as you use them wisely. Picking the right card for the
benefits you use the most is always a smart idea. For years I've resisted offers for a credit card that offers free flights
on a major airline because I rarely fly.
BUYING AND SELLING SEVEN STARS COMPANION CARDS -- PRICES
GOING UP?Update June 1, 2016& Back in April, I wrote about
how I was surprised to find out that in Atlantic City some players are paying as much as $1,000 to be listed as a Seven Stars
Companion. I was surprised because being a Seven Stars Companion really isn't worth more than having shorter lines at the
casino cage and at restaurants and taxi stands, and there is no monetary value attached to the piece of plastic except for
entrance to Diamond and Seven Stars lounges.But now there are signs that the value of being a
Seven Stars Companion card holder might be going up. One reason is the new paid parking rules that MGM is starting at its
casinos in Las Vegas on June 6th. MGM is exempting higher-ranked players from paying for parking. The thought now is that
Caesars will follow the MGM lead and start its own paid parking in which case Seven Stars members and presumably Seven Stars
Companions will also be exempt from paid parking. This will not only add to the convenience-factor of being a Seven Stars
Companion card holder, but the free parking will actually give the Companion Card some actual cash value.Right now, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, valet parking at the Augustus Tower on Flamingo and at the main entrance
on Las Vegas Boulevard is often restricted to only Seven Stars members, and that would include those with a Companion card.
So there is some &convenience value& to being a Companion card holder. And add in the free parking and free valet
parking, and a Companion card could be worth a lot of money as Valet rates could be in the range of $20. Several Caesars Total Rewards members have been discussing via private messages and posting on Internet discussion
groups that there is an actual market for &Seven Stars Companion Status& in Atlantic City. It seems that there are
regular players who will pay a Seven Stars member to be listed as their companion so they can use the Diamond Lounge there.
The going rate seems to be $1,000 which works out to under $20 a week. The belief is that for regular, daily visitors they
get their money's worth from using the Diamond Lounge for food and beverages. I have recently seen several posting on Internet discussion groups asking to be listed as a Seven Stars Companion
and offering to pay the Seven Stars member some money to do this. If Caesars starts to charge for parking (like MGM) and there
is a parking-fee exemption for Seven Stars then I could see how regular visitors to the Vegas casinos might bid up the value
of being listed as a Seven Stars Companion.I don't know of any rule that would prohibit a Seven
Stars member from designating a complete stranger as their Seven Stars Companion. As I noted in previous reports a &companion&
cannot access the account of the Seven Stars member and must have their own Total Rewards account. If you're a Seven Stars
member and you don't have someone you want designated as your &companion& then selling the designation to a complete
stranger just might be worth a thousand dollars or more if free parking is included.
CAESARS TOTAL REWARDS ENDS PARTICIPATION WITH FUEL REWARDS
NETWORKUpdate May 17, 2016& One of the fringe benefits of the Caesars
Total Rewards Program (and it really was a tiny fringe) was getting discounts at Shell gas stations based on your casino play.
These discounts came through Shell's Fuel Rewards Network discount plan. Today, Caesars announced that its participation in
the Fuel Rewards Network was ending. In an email to Total Rewards members, Caesars said:The
last day to earn Fuel Rewards savings from Total Rewards is May 31, 2016.
You will then have until June 30, 2016 to redeem
any savings that you earned
during May.The Fuel Rewards
Network will continue but without Caesars. While it was a nice benefit it was a very tiny benefit. You'd visit a casino and
play and get maybe a discount of 5-cents or 10-cents per gallon on one fill-up. I once got a discount of $1 a gallon but it
included special discounts that I earned with other businesses that were also part of the Fuel Rewards Network.
A CHANGE FOR THE 2016 TOTAL REWARDS SIGNATURE EVENTSUpdate March 17, 2016& Some members of the Caesars Total Rewards program will see a significant change
in the Total Rewards Signature Events promotion this year. Instead of choosing only one event, some players with higher Total
Rewards Tier Scores (from casino play) will be able to attend two events. These events are in Lake Tahoe, Atlantic City, Las
Vegas and New Orleans and include four nights hotel plus various events such as dinners and tours of nearby points of interest.Perhaps because some Total Rewards Seven Stars members can book two Signature Events, I had some difficulty getting
my choices at the Las Vegas Event in August. Some of the special events were not available at the times I wanted and others
were not available at all. And then there were some conflicts in times that prevented me from getting my first choices. I
was told this when I ran into trouble: book your Signature Event on April 1st which is the first day that the Signature Events
can be reserved. That's a good tip for 2017.
THE SEVEN STARS COMPANION CARD REALITY CHECKUpdate April 23, 2016& This is the time of year when Seven Stars players in the Caesars Total Rewards
program can choose their Seven Stars Companion for the new fiscal year. Here's a reality check on the Seven Stars Companion
Card:1. It's nothing more than what I call a &line cutting card.& Yes, showing a 7
Stars Companion Card will give you access to the priority lines that Seven Stars players have at restaurants and at the cage
and at the valet and taxi lines but that's about it.2. Having a Seven Stars Companion Card does
not entitle you to any of the comps that 7 Stars players get. The reality is, if you designate your girlfriend or your wife
as your Seven Stars Companion, she does not have access to your credit line or to your account for reward credits or tier
points. And that can be a good thing.&3. The Seven Stars Companion must have their own Total
Rewards players card account and their individual account number will show on their Seven Stars Companion Card -- and not
the account number of the actual Seven Stars player.4. While some casinos will comp tobacco for
actual Seven Stars players, they are not likely to comp tobacco for a Seven Stars Companion card holder. While some casinos
might comp buffets for Seven Stars players, they will not extend the comp to a Seven Stars Companion without the actual Seven
Stars player being present. The bottom line is that the Seven Stars Companion Card is nothing
more than a courtesy card treating the Companion as if the Companion were with the actual Seven Stars Player when it comes
to using special and shorter lines.
CAESARS TOTAL REWARDS GREAT GIFT WRAP UP DATES FOR 2016Update April 19, 2016& Caesars has scheduled the dates for its 2016 Great Gift Wrap Up event in Las
Vegas. This is the event that allows Total Rewards members to choose from a catalog of gifts based on the Reward Credits that
they earn during the year. This is a bonus event leaving the player's Reward Credits intact for use for other purposes so
that you can earn 100 Reward Credits and spend them on a restaurant meal and still have 100 Reward Credits for the Great Gift
Wrap Up shopping event.The first GGWU event will be held November 3rd through November 7th at
Paris Las Vegas. The second GGWU event will be November 30th through December 4th, 2016. Later this year the first of the
gift items will be added to the GGWU
but as of today there are no listings.Caesars does a pretty good job with shipping so that most
items are delivered in time for Christmas, but there can be delays. At the 2015 GGWU at Paris, Caesars had a desk where Total
Rewards members could pick up gift cards instead of having them shipped. But near the end of the Paris event the supply of
gift cards was exhausted and gift cards had to be shipped. At the Caesars event all gift cards had to be shipped.What is curious about the GGWU event is that Caesars requires the vendors who participate to have top executives
and regional managers on hand to demonstrate and describe their products. It is not uncommon to even have a senior vice president
of a company at the GGWU speaking with players. Caesars does this to be sure its players get the best information.Total Rewards members will note that Caesars runs various promotions during the year that provide bonus Tier Credits
but Caesars does not have promotions for extra Reward Credits which come primarily from actual casino play. This means you
might have a &tier score& that is double of what your &reward point score& is. You can check your Reward
Credits on the GGWU website.
CAESARS TOTAL REWARDS HAS A DEAL WITH ATLANTIS RESORT IN
THE BAHAMASUpdate April 15, 2016& The Total Rewards program at Caesars
now has a marketing deal with the Atlantis Resort and Casino on Paradise Island in the Bahamas which provides one free&stay
each year for Platinum, Diamond and Seven Stars members. You will get free from two to four nights plus a limited amount of
free play (up to $250) and a limited amount of resort credits (up to $100 daily) under the program. You
have to pay for your own airfare and that makes it an expensive &free offer& to claim if you live on the west coast.
I called the casino marketing department at the Atlantis and they confirmed they have no air-fare deal to use. Also, it's
not cheap to eat there. Meals are very expensive at the resort but the resort does have meal plans for fixed prices for a
breakfast/lunch and dinner. If you want to take this offer you deal with the players club at the Atlantis and not with your
Caesars host.Also, there have been some comments on the Internet that the Atlantis expects Caesars
Total Rewards members to have play at Atlantis which matches their play at Caesars casinos. Some Total Rewards members received
a confirmation from the Atlantis for their trips and this condition was spelled out in the fine print. The fine print also
says players might be charged for their room if their casino play does not meet expectations. However, when I called the marketing
department at the Atlantis they said this does not apply to Total Rewards members and the confirmation slip with that fine
print was actually intended for Atlantis' players. The Atlantis marketing rep told me TR members could &no play&
and the offer would stand as stated.
CAESARS APPEARS TO HAVE CANCELED ITS ALTERNATIVE OPTION
FOR TOTAL REWARDS SEVEN STARS ANNUAL RETREATUpdate April 13, 2016&
It appears that Caesars canceled its new 2016 alternative option for the Seven Stars Annual Retreat. The Annual Retreat has
traditionally included air fare and a folio credit of $500 to a Caesars casino property that isn't your &home casino&
and was a use-it or lose-it offer. For a few weeks this year, players could elect to receive an alternative option of $500
in Reward Credits instead of the Annual Retreat package. But now, that alternative option has been removed from the Total
Rewards website.I called Total Rewards and they confirmed the alternative option for 50,000 Reward
Credits ($500 value) is no longer available in their system but the representative I spoke with could not explain the reason.
The traditional Annual Retreat package does continue. It includes air fare worth up to $1200 and there
is a four-night stay. But for those who had no interest in a trip to another casino claiming the alternative option of $500
in RCs which can be converted to free play wasn't a bad option while it lasted. I was able to
claim the $500 in RCs about a week ago and it appears I was able to claim the option just before the option was canceled.
CAESARS TOTAL REWARDS CONTINUES ITS TIER CREDIT BONUSES
IN 2016Update March 2, 2016& This year, Total Rewards -- the players
rewards program for the Caesars casinos -- is continuing its program of giving bonus tier points when players reach certain
levels of play each day. If a player gets 1,000 tier credits from their play in a day they get a 1,000 tier credit bonus.
Get 2,500 tier credits in a day and the bonus is 5,000 points. Get 5,000 tier credits in a day from your play and the bonus
is 10,000 tier points.By maximizing your play on certain days it is possible to reach certain
tier levels including Seven Stars quicker and with less actual play in the casinos. In fact, in just ten days of play earning
5,000 tier points, a player can earn the Seven Stars level in the Total Rewards program.There
are two impacts of these tier bonuses. One impact is that more players are reaching the higher levels of Diamond and Seven
Stars and that is probably leading to lower offers for all Diamond and Seven Stars players. The other impact is that players
are being given an incentive to play more to earn a bonus.It is probably never a good idea to
play for comps and getting bonus tier points for your play is nothing more than getting comps. But instead of the &comps&
coming in the form of a buffet or a casino tote bag the comps are coming in the form of tier points. The reality is no casino
comp is ever worth the theoretical cost of your play.The key phrase here is &theoretical
cost& because if you actually have a profit from your play then all of your comps are icing on the cake. Remember that
casinos give out comps based on what they expect to win from your gambling. This expected win for the casino (which is also
known as an expected loss for the player or a theoretical cost or loss), is always figured to be worth more than the cost
of the comp or the offer.It's true that by receiving tier bonus points your theoretical loss
of reaching the Seven Stars level in the Total Rewards program will be lower than if you received no bonus tier points. But
don't make the mistake of thinking the bonus tier points are a complete gift.The real danger
for players is when they have exhausted their budgeted money for the day and their tier score is 4,999 points. Do they reach
into their pocket for another $5 bill to get one more tier point at slots? Or do they reach into their pocket for one more
$10 bill to get one more tier point at video poker? And what if the player is 500 points away from 5,000 tier points and a
10,000 tier point bonus? Does that player run to the ATM to withdraw another thousand or two thousand dollars to earn those
extra points?The continuation of the bonus tier points can help savvy players who normally play
high levels. But for players on a budget the lure of a tier bonus just a few points or a few hundred points away can be a
real budget buster.
CHECK AND DOUBLE-CHECK YOUR CASINO RATINGUpdate February 23, 2016& One of the worst conversations to have is when you are speaking to your casino
host about booking a room or asking for show tickets or a special restaurant reservation and the host says &but you haven't
played enough for these offers.& But you know you have played enough -- or you played more than enough and maybe you
lost too much? What do you do?Let's face it: casino hosts and marketing programs look at your
casino play to determine your &worth& when it comes to comps (offers) and incentives such as free play and free
hotel rooms. You must be certain that you are properly rated for your play.With slots and video
poker it's important that you have your player's card inserted in the machine and check to be sure the card is properly inserted
and the &points& for your play are being registered. With some casinos, if you stop play for several minutes the
system will &reset& and you will have to reinsert your card for play to be recorded. So be sure your card is active
with each push of the button.With table games it's important that you check-in with the table
supervisor and be sure your play is properly recorded and the supervisor has your correct player's card number recorded. With
some casinos it's a matter of swiping your card through a card reader. But with other casinos they might have to physically
write down your name or account number.Machines are pretty good about getting your play properly
recorded -- but humans aren't as good and this is why you should check-out with the table supervisor and ask how you will
be rated? You want to know the time and the average bet that was recorded for you. It's also good to have your win or loss
properly recorded because this can help you negotiate offers later with your casino host.You
don't have to lose to negotiate good offers. When you win casino hosts also want to give you good offers because they want
you to come back to play more. Winners tend to return and since the casino has its &edge& on all of its games, the
odds favor the casino getting back the money you won. So when you win ask for extras such as comps and show tickets and an
extra free buffet because as a winner a host might be very inclined to make you happy so you will return or keep playing.When you get home from your trip or sometimes during your trip, you can sometimes check your official rating with
the casinos website. The MLife website for players in the MGM casino system is updated daily showing casino play including
coin-in for machine players and table game wins and losses. If you play at an MGM property you should make it a habit of going
on their website and checking your action. It's good to know your action not only for casino comps and offers but also as
a reality check so you know exactly what you are winning or losing.For players with the Caesars
Total Rewards system, you can go on the Total Rewards website and check the win/loss statement for the last calendar year.
Then for the current year's win/loss change the year in the web address for your account and you will get your current amounts.
I have found that the Caesars Total Rewards current year win/loss amount is updated online usually within 48 hours of your
last play.There can be problems in what supervisors at table games might record for you. I had
a problem in 2015 when somehow my player's account number was credited with a $100 buy-in at roulette with a $50 loss at a
Vegas casino for a weekend when I wasn't even in Las Vegas. Because of that bogus entry, my average bet was dramatically impacted
and my casino offers for the next three months dropped by almost 50-percent. My casino host at the property tried to correct
the error -- after all, I wasn't even in the city and didn't stay at the hotel. But I was told &once it's in the system
it can't be changed.&On the other hand, if you detect an error while you are in the casino
you can alert the pit where you were playing about the error and have it corrected.
Update December 4, 2013& I was reading the official
rules of the Great Gift Wrap Up, the annual gift event that Caesars Entertainment&has for&its Total Rewards players
when once again I spotted that great disclaimer about table game ratings:Table game players must turn their Total Rewards& card in to the dealer to have their play tracked in
order to receive tracked play Gift Points. Caesars uses reasonable efforts to track a table game participant's average bet
and length of play. However, as a condition of receiving Gift Points for playing table games, all Promotion participants agree
that such tracking is based on the personal observation of Caesars employees, which is subject to error. The determination
of Caesars shall be final with respect to any discrepancies regarding tracked table play.The big problem for all table game players at all casinos is the fact that there is the personal observation of a
human, and a human has to enter what they observe, and as a player you have to hope that they get it right.I once played craps at a casino where for the first several shooters I only made
a $10 passline bet... but after those first few shooters I went to my regular betting of having $25 pass with $130 or $135
&across& on the numbers, plus full odds.& I later found out that the floorman had me rated as a $35 player
for two hours, and the floorman either overlooked or failed to change my &rating& from my initial bets.& I
asked my host at the casino if that could be changed so my overall rating at the casino would not be damaged, and I was told
that unless the floorman was able to recall his error and make the change it would be almost impossible to fix.You should be aware that most floor supervisors will make a note of your betting
level when you first start playing at a table.& If that initial entry is not updated by that floor person or subsequent
supervisors, your higher bets made later might never be recorded.But
sometimes the &record& can be in your favor.& I once played at a &carnival game& at a casino where
my average bet was $15 but the floor person said to us at the table (when we asked) that she rated everyone as a minimum $25
player because she realized the system wouldn't give anyone betting $10 or $15 any comps at all.There are certain things you can do to &protect yourself& to be sure you get a proper rating when playing
a table game such as checking with the floor person when you leave and asking what you were rated at -- which is probably
the best thing you can do.& Once you leave a table it is almost impossible to have the records changed.About ten years ago, when RFID casino chips were developed there was hope that
table game players might actually get accurate ratings and proper comps for their action or bets.RFID casino chips can be scanned from a distance and are scanned to be sure they are authentic.& The scan can
be used to check not only authenticity but also their denomination.& The RFID technology could also count the value of
a stack of chips or even a bank of chips with an instant scan.& The RFID technology could also be used to count the chips
in each player's rail or table position.I recall that when
RFID casino chips were first developed that one of the goals was to have a computer-linked rating system for each player position
that would actually track the individual bets of players.& That system was easy to establish for blackjack tables and
I saw it demonstrated at a gaming business convention but I don't know if it is actually used anywhere now.& But while
it is very difficult to track all of the bets and all of the betting positions at a craps table the RFID game designers said
it is also possible to have RFID-enabled craps bet tracking.& They explained it to me that the newest RFID technology
could isolate even the bets within the boxes such as the number &5& on a craps table.In roulette an RFID bet tracking system might work more easily because different players get different color chips.&
Perhaps that type of system could also be adopted for craps?The
point is that something better should be developed for tracking the bets of table game players.Whether it's a promotion such as the Great Gift Wrap Up for the Caesars Properties or the gift giveaways that other
casino companies have or getting comps (free offers) for such things as hotel rooms, meals, shows, bonus chips, free slot
play, etc., the casinos have created an environment where getting proper &ratings& of your bets has become very
important.In the meantime, because table game players don't
have the ease and simplicity that slot and video poker players have for getting their &action& tracked, I think
the casinos should do a better job of trying to be sure that table game players are tracked better, and table game players
should still make the extra effort to be sure they were tracked properly.Maybe someday those RFID chip tracking systems will be used.
SLOT MACHINE AND VIDEO POKER PLAYER TIPS&For slot machine and video poker players the rating game is easier and more exact.&
You insert your player's card (casino club card or tracking card) into the reader of the machine and keep it there.&
Of course there can also be problems for machine players such as the reader fails to recognize your card, or the card reader
stops working.Some card readers will flash red lights when
they stop reading.& This could happen if your card has been inserted into a machine but you have not played the machine
for several minutes.If your card is withdrawn from the machine
during the course of a handpay by a slot attendant be sure the card has been properly reinserted after the attendant records
your card information.There might also be a problem if your
card is in a machine for too long and too many points are recorded.& I have been told of systems that stop recording
points on a player's card when too many points show up in one session.& This &cut off& was designed to protect
the casino in case one player's card remains in a machine and registers the play of various players in succession who come
to the machine.& The advice from that casino was to remove and reinsert your card each half hour or after a large number
of points have been recorded if you are a high limit player.You
might also want to remove and reinsert your player's card if the casino is tracking current play for certain promotions.&
For example, if there are hourly drawings for cash prizes your play for that hour might not be recorded for the drawing unless
you remove your card.Some casinos also might have bonuses for
certain play during each &gaming day& and you should remove and reinsert your card if your play crosses that &gaming
day& time.& For example, if the gaming day changes at 4am you should remove your card at 3:59am and then reinsert
it at 4:01am to be sure your play is properly record for both gaming days.& Being recorded for two gaming days instead
of one might help your overall rating or for certain bonuses.&
WHY YOU SHOULD USE AN INDEPENDENT CASINO HOSTUpdate&May 17, 2012& If you have a gambling budget or bankroll of $5,000 or more
you should be booking your casino visit with the assistance of a casino host.& A host can be sure that you get the proper
reservations for your stay, for restaurants, shows, events and even promotions such as shopping sprees and gift-giving events.&
They can get you some of the best Vegas show tickets and into some of the most prestigious events.If you're the kind of casino regular that is loyal to one property, then dealing with a casino host from that property
is probably okay for you.& However, many loyal players are finding that casinos have cut back on the number of hosts
they have, and many &property hosts& might not be able to give you the attention you deserve, and with casinos tightening
up on comps&they might lack the &power of the pen& to write comps.If
you are not getting the attention of the &property hosts,& or if you want to stay and play at different casinos
on different trips then having an Independent Host is in order.An Independent
Host does not have any allegiance to any one casino or to any one group of casinos.& In fact, an Independent Host is
likely to have a relationship with the management at several casinos in the same city so that he is able to shop around for
the best deals for his clients -- and they are the players.I talked about the business
of Independent Hosts with Ed Ford of CASINOMKTG which is an Independent Casino Host outfit.& Ed will represent players
who have a budget of $5,000 and more for a casino trip.& He also handles high rollers who might have a bankroll of a
million dollars or more for a trip.& And because he represents his client's best interests he can work for them to get
the best possible deal from the casinos he has relationships with.As I said before,
as an Independent Host Ed can shop for the best deal for his players among casinos in the same city.& In Las Vegas, for
example, he can make arrangements for his players at the Wynn properties or with the Caesars properties.& He also deals
with Cosmopolitan and Ed tells me that a lot of his clients want to try out the Cosmopolitan because it is the newest casino.&
He can also get the best deals for his players at Red Rock and Green Valley and the Hard Rock.The point is, if you are a player who doesn't want to be locked into one casino-relationship then having an Independent
Host can help you get more from different casinos.You see, if you were to try to
get VIP treatment at any casino on your own, you'd probably have to establish some sort of &player history& with
them.& But by working with an Independent Host, that Independent Host knows what your action (player activity) is and
get you the benefits and comps and upgrades even before you place your first bet.&It's
all about having one contact to stay all over, to travel to different casinos, in different states,& Ed told me.&
&It's like one stop shopping instead of having to deal with different hosts at different casinos.&Ed Ford is always looking for new clients to represent.& Call him at (702) 533-5464
to talk about your play and the benefits he can secure for you.
Here on our new media website &Moneyman& Alan Mendelson who is the original Best Deals TV Show&reporter
on KCAL9 and consumer advocate, shows you the best deals on TV, and&the best buys, bargains and where savvy shoppers
go to save, and how to get the most for &your money& with the best of Los Angeles, Orange County, Ventura County,
Riverside County and San Bernardino County.& Our Best Buys TV Show has the best TV deals and is the only regularly scheduled
weekly best deals TV show in Southern California.& We show you the best buys and best&deals on TV and&more
deals and bargains&on& and
and watch for our Las Vegas TV show Vegas Best Buys.& Some of the content can come from paid advertising and from our
advertiser paid TV infomercial programs.& The Best Buys TV Show is a paid infomercial program which may also include
news and information which is not sponsored or paid for by advertisers.&
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